For the second year in a row, a player from the National Basketball League (NBL) is projected to hear their name called early in the NBA Draft.
In 2020, LaMelo Ball was selected with the No. 3 pick by the Charlotte Hornets after he averaged 17.0 points, 7.6 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game with the Illawarra Hawks. In 2021, it's Josh Giddey, a potential lottery pick who averaged 10.9 points, 7.5 assists and 7.4 rebounds per game with the Adelaide 36ers.
While Giddey shot only 42.7 percent from the field in a 36ers uniform, his 7.5 assists per game led the NBL, an impressive feat for an 18-year-old.
A few years ago, Tyler Lashbrook of SB Nation wrote scouting reports on draft prospects based on three games — their best game of the season, their worst game of the season and a game somewhere in the middle. Why? Former NBA executive Ryan McDonough once said that's the "ideal scenario" to watch a prospect play.
That's what we're going to do with Giddey to get an idea of what his ceiling and floor is, starting with his best game of the season.
Best Game: Triple-double for the win
Stats: 15 points (5-9 FG), 13 assists, 11 rebounds, 5 turnovers vs. Brisbane Bullets
The first thing that stands out about Giddey is his feel for the game.
There were two times early in the first quarter where Giddey was able to take advantage of the defence anticipating his next move. The first time, it looked like his defender, Anthony Drmic, thought he was going to receive a screen from Isaac Humphries on the perimeter.
Noticing him out of position, Giddey took off in the other direction with a crossover and pulled up just inside the free-throw line for a floater.
The second time, Giddey got a step on Drmic by faking a handoff. He then got Bullets center Matt Hodgson in the air underneath the basket and set up Humphries for a layup with a nifty wraparound pass.
It's no secret that Giddey's greatest asset coming into the NBA is his passing ability. Standing at 6-foot-8, he's a big guard who can grab-and-go, see over most perimeter defenders and make high-level reads. As NBA.com's Kyle Irving wrote, he's the type of lead ball-handler who makes everyone around him better.
Giddey's vision was on full display against the Bullets, a game in which he tied his season-high with 13 assists. (He could've easily had a few more, too).
He rewarded his teammates for getting out in transition.
He delivered pinpoint passes out of the pick-and-roll.
He found shooters when the defence collapsed on drives.
And he made a number of nice passes in the halfcourt, picking the Bullets apart like a quarterback.
Giddey's 13 assists came with five turnovers — he got a little careless and overly ambitious on a few occasions — but it's easy to see why he's being billed as one of the best passers in this draft class. With his vision at his size, his passing should translate well to the NBA. (Just imagine him on a team like the Golden State Warriors, who could surround him with shooters and/or cutters at every position. Even he's excited about that possibility). How he'll fare as a scorer is more of a question mark.
Giddey scored 15 points against the Bullets, tied for his third-highest scoring game of the season. Of the five baskets he made, four came in the paint.
What he lacks in explosiveness and speed he makes up for with size and skill, this being his most impressive finish of the game:
Where Giddey will have to improve to reach his ceiling in the NBA is as a shooter.
According to InStat, Giddey attempted a total of 26 midrange jumpers with the 36ers, of which he made nine. (For context, that represented only 9.7 percent of his field-goal attempts on the season). He was much more willing to let it fly from 3-point range (99), but he converted his 3-point attempts at a 29.3 percent clip.
Knowing he's not much of a shooter, teams will likely be aggressive about ducking underneath screens when Giddey has the ball in his hands.
Not only that, but teams will likely help off of him when he doesn't have the ball in his hands to muck up spacing for others.
Giddey might never be a big-time scorer, but it would go a long way if he can at least keep the defence honest.
Worst Game: A tough Break(ers)
Stats: 2 points (1-4 FG), 4 rebounds, 0 assists, 3 turnovers vs. New Zealand Breakers
This was Giddey's only game this season in which he failed to record an assist, but he still had a number of potential assists.
On one of the opening possessions of the game, Giddey set up Tony Crocker for a good look at a 3-pointer with a slick left-handed bounce pass.
A few minutes later, he found Humphries on a backdoor cut.
He followed it up with another nice bounce pass, this time to Daniel Johnson on a duck-in around the basket.
Even in a game where Giddey struggled, it was clear how gifted of a passer he is.
On the scoring front, Giddey finished with a season-low two points on 1-for-4 shooting from the field. (It didn't help that he failed to get to the foul line).
Giddey's lone basket came on a drive out of the pick-and-roll early in the third quarter. Here's that size and skill coming into play again:
As for his misses, one came in the paint...
...one came from midrange...
...and one came from 3-point range.
There were also a couple of times where Giddey tried to make a move towards the basket, only he wasn't able to get by his defender. One knock on him is that he lacks an explosive first step and shiftiness, which could become problematic at the next level.
Giddey should benefit from playing in the NBA's spacing, but he could struggle to consistently break defenders down out of the pick-and-roll and in isolation.
Again, Giddey improving as a shooter will open up the game tremendously for him, both as a scorer and a passer. He obviously still has a ways to go, but it's a part of his game he says he grew more comfortable with throughout the 2021 season.
"At the start of the year, I was shooting it terribly," Giddey told ESPN's Mike Schmitz. "Rightfully so, teams were going under me and daring me to shoot it. I think then, I didn't have any confidence in myself to be able to make shots, like, off the bounce and catch and shoot, so I was kind of shooting it always nervously.
"As the season progressed, I stopped worrying about that stuff and I've just been shooting the ball."
Whichever team selects Giddey will be hoping that his confidence as a shooter continues to grow.
Somewhere in the middle: An all-around showing
Stats: 15 points (6-11 FG), 6 assists, 2 rebounds, 3 turnovers vs. Cairns Taipans
As was the case in the other games, Giddey's size stood out on straight-line drives to the basket. Of the six baskets he made, four came at the rim — two out of the pick-and-roll, one off of a well-timed cut and one in transition following a blocked shot.
He also delivered several pinpoint passes, some of which ended with him getting the assist...
...some of which didn't.
What was particularly encouraging about Giddey's performance in this one was that he nailed a pair of jumpers in the second half.
The first came from the perimeter off of a handoff.
The second was a pull-up from midrange off of an Iverson cut.
Other than a few turnovers and a lapse on defence, a solid all-around showing from Giddey.
Takeaways
Giddey's appeal is clear. As Australian great Andrew Gaze put it, "it’s not every day you get a guy that is 6-foot-8 that has the basketball IQ, ball skills and leadership that he brings." He's a legitimately good passer with size, and he held his own in a professional league at the age of 18.
At this point, it seems safe to assume that Giddey will be a first-round pick in the 2021 NBA Draft. That alone goes to show how much he's improved over the last 12 months, as he wasn't really on the radar heading into the 2020-21 season. What remains to be seen is how high he goes in the draft.
NBA.com's draft expert Kyle Irving has Giddey going No. 13 to the Indiana Pacers in his latest mock draft. NBA.com's other draft expert, Eric Fawcett, has him going No. 15 to the Washington Wizards. Others, such as The Athletic's Sam Vecenie, have him going as high as No. 10 to the New Orleans Pelicans.
As gifted of a playmaker as Giddey is, Irving noted some of his physical limitations, as well as his need to improve as a shooter.
"Giddey is a gifted playmaker who can do a little bit of everything on the offensive end," Irving writes. "He's a pick-and-roll maestro and a flashy passer in the open floor, making every player around him better. An intelligent decision-maker and confident floor general. A streaky shooter, which will have to improve to truly be effective at the next level. He lacks burst and athleticism, failing to create separation off the bounce. Yet, still a sound defender with a nose for the ball. He'll be a crafty offensive initiator in the NBA."
It'll be important for Giddey's development that he lands in the right situation — one where he's surrounded by other talent and is given room to grow — but it's no wonder why his stock continues to grow ahead of the draft.
The views expressed here do not represent those of the NBA or its clubs.